Markers for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To identify markers for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and the possible development of pancreatic necrosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: Prospective analysis of 81 patients with moderate and severe acute pancreatitis while performing correlation analysis, building a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Results: A direct correlation of medium strength between sFGL2 and the following parameters was found D-dimer (R=0.47 (p<0.001)), C-reactive protein (R=0.3 (p=0.03)), intra-abdominal pressure (R=0.54 (p<0.0001)). It was discovered that such indicators as: BISAP score (OR=1.62 95%CI 0.99-2.66) p=0.05, sFGL2 (OR=1.01 95%CI 1.0-1.05) p=0.007, CRP (OR=1.01 95%CI 1.0-1.01) p=0.02, D-dimer (OR=2.59 95%CI 1.57-4.26) p=0.0002, intra-abdominal pressure (OR=195 95%CI 1, 39-2.72) p=0.0001 allow to predict the progression of necrotic changes in the pancreatic tissue and retroperitoneal space. And such indicators as: BISAP scale (OR=2.19 95%CI 1.33-3.59) p=0.002, sFGL2 (OR=1.01 95%CI 1.0-1.1) p=0.0002, CRP (OR=1.02 95%CI 1.01-1.02) p<0.0001, D-dimer (OR=1.99 95%CI 1.4-2.83) p=0.0001, intra-abdominal pressure (OR=2.36 95%CI 1.59-3.5) p<0.0001) may play a role in predicting worsening of acute pancreatitis. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: It has been revealed that elevated levels of sFGL2, D-dimer and intra-abdominal pressure can predict the progression of necrotic changes in the pancreatic tissue and retroperitoneal space. And such indicators as the BISAP score, sFGL2, CRP, D-dimer and intra-abdominal pressure may play a role in predicting the deterioration of acute pancreatitis.