Identifying Strengths and Obstacles to Climate Change Adaptation in the German Agricultural Sector: A Group Model Building Approach

Abstract

In the past 30 years, there has been a significant increase in drought events in Europe. It is expected that climate change will make droughts more frequent and intense. This situation is particularly concerning for areas with no drought management culture. This study focuses on North East Lower Saxony (NELS), an important agricultural region in northern Germany. We implement a novel approach to Group Model Building to assess the preparedness of NELS to deal with climate change and droughts. Our novel approach includes the creation of a preliminary model based on individual interviews and a triangulation of information after the workshop. We conclude that stakeholders are aware of climate change, but insufficient attention is given to adaptive solutions mainly because they require high initial investments. Given its existing political infrastructure, the region has the potential to adjust. With efficient government bodies are already in place, beneficial updates could be made to established water withdrawal regulations.