Socioeconomic and political roots of national revolts in Central America

Abstract

Draws on theories of sociopolitical violence and revolution in an attempt to explain the origin of the widespread popular political mobilization that has played a major part in Central America's recent rebellions. The study employs aggregate data from the 1950s through the 1980s as well as descriptive data to explore how differences in the rate and nature of economic growth, income and wealth distribution, and governmental response to unrest may have contributed to rebellions in Somoza's Nicaragua (1977-1979), El Salvador (since 1979), and Guatemala (since 1978) and to the lack of rebellions in Honduras and Costa Rica. The evidence strongly suggests that Central America's rapid growth of export agriculture after 1950 and industrialization after 1960 markedly reduced the relative and absolute living standards of the working class, who then mobilized to demand redress of their grievances. Where the state responded accommodatingly and with limited repression (in Costa Rica and Honduras), opposition mobilization stagnated or subsided. Where the state did not ameliorate growing inequality and employed heavy repression, opposition mobilization and unity increased and led to a broad, rebellious challenge to regime sovereignty. -from Author