MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTIONS OF COVID-19 DYNAMICS

Abstract

COVID19 outbreak presents the biggest global health creases in last century. Its pandemic spread and influence in everyday social life, economics and health is in central interest of concern for all governments in the world. This pandemic is the worst global disasters since the World Wars and pandemic from 1918, which completely change normal life of people. The combat against Covid-19 is playing a central role in all branches in each country in order to minimize the damage caused by this pandemic. Mathematical modelling of spread of infection and predictions that derived from the models can be used as efficient tool in this combat and can give precise direction to authorities to implement new or balance the already implemented restrictions and measures in order to decrease harmful consequences from epidemic. In this paper we are implementing new modified SEIRS-D model on Republic of North Macedonia epidemic situation, using AnyLogic software. Using this model, we give prediction of spread of disease with or without restriction measures