Identification and Analysis of Earthquake Risks in Worn-Out Urban Fabrics Using the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Brainstorming (IFBS) Technique for Group Decision-Making

Abstract

This study seeks to advance group decision-making in project management by introducing a hybrid intuitionistic fuzzy brainstorming (IFBS) method tailored for identifying and assessing earthquake risks in worn-out urban fabrics in Iran. By integrating the collaborative ideation of brainstorming with intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs), the IFBS method effectively addresses uncertainties inherent in expert judgments, providing a robust and systematic framework for risk prioritization. Expert opinions, captured as linguistic variables, were transformed into triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers using a 5-point Likert scale measurement, enabling precise numerical analysis of 11 identified earthquake risks. Compared to the PMBOK-based qualitative analysis, the IFBS method demonstrates superior accuracy and granularity in risk assessment, as evidenced by its ability to model complex uncertainties and prioritize risks effectively. This study contributes a novel, scalable decision-making tool that enhances precision in urban risk management, offering practical implications for project managers and researchers tackling natural disaster risks. Its primary novelty lies in the innovative combination of IFSs with brainstorming, creating a scientific guide for managing earthquake vulnerabilities in worn-out urban fabrics. This approach not only improves decision-making outcomes but also sets a foundation for future research in hybrid fuzzy methodologies for disaster resilience.