Evidence of the Gulf Stream's influence on tropical cyclone intensity

Abstract

Historical storm data and satellite imagery are analyzed to determine the intensity changes and storm- related characteristics of 53 coastal and landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) from Florida to North Carolina that passed over the Gulf Stream (GS) during the period 1944-2000. It appears that less intense storms (Category 2 or weaker), as well as those occurring earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season, are more likely to be strengthened by the GS. In addition, 81% of the Category 2 or weaker storms that intensified based on both maximum wind speed (MWS) and minimum central pressure (MCP) had tracks approximately parallel to the GS, while 3 of the 5 major (Category 3-5) hurricanes that intensified based on both MWS and MCP tracked perpendicular to the GS. The presence of an upstream mid-latitude trough could have contributed to the intensification of the weaker TCs by steering them along the GS.