Putting predictions in public: professional perspectives on the risks and benefits of changing wildfire warning systems

Abstract

Recent experiences of intense wildfire events in fire-prone landscapes have sparked interest and investment in the use of wildfire simulation models and other predictive tools to inform the development of effective warning systems. As projections of increasingly intense and frequent wildfires eventuate, there is growing interest in the inclusion of more predictive intelligence in public warnings to mitigate disastrous losses during and prior to fire events. Predictive fire spread maps (FSMs) show the predicted extent of a given wildfire and have occasionally been shown to the public as a form of hazard information in Australia. Existing literature and inquiry recommendations have highlighted a need for evidence-based research to support the translation of such novel technologies into practice. Our research, which involved interviews with 44 sector experts, explores emergency management professionals’ current uses of predictive FSMs, and their views on the potential release of such maps to the public in the future. This article investigates the cultural and institutional constraints underlying the implementation and uptake of predictive technologies and intelligence by its users. Although specific to the Australian context, the findings of this case study offer valuable insights for others considering the integration of novel predictive tools into public warning systems.