Social clustering of unvaccinated children in schools in the Netherlands

Abstract

For the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, the World Health Organization-recommended coverage for herd protection is 95% for measles and 80% for rubella and mumps. However, a national vaccine coverage does not reflect social clustering of unvaccinated children, e.g. in schools of Orthodox Protestant or Anthroposophic identity in The Netherlands. To fully characterise this clustering, we estimated one-dose MMR vaccination coverages at all schools in the Netherlands. By combining postcode catchment areas of schools and school feeder data, each child in the Netherlands was characterised by residential postcode, primary and secondary school (referred to as school career). Postcode-level vaccination data were used to estimate vaccination coverages per school career. These were translated to coverages per school, stratified by school identity. Most schools had vaccine coverages over 99%, but major exceptions were Orthodox Protestant schools (63% in primary and 58% in secondary schools) and Anthroposophic schools (67% and 78%). School-level vaccine coverage estimates reveal strong clustering of unvaccinated children. The school feeder data reveal strongly connected Orthodox Protestant and Anthroposophic communities, but separated from one another. This suggests that even at a national one-dose MMR coverage of 97.5%, thousands of children per cohort are not protected by herd immunity.