War, solidarity and welfare attitudes: Survey evidence from the war in Ukraine

Abstract

How does interstate war affect social policy preferences? Historical research has emphasised war-induced surges in demand for social protection, solidarity and fairness norms as central factors behind welfare expansion. Yet evidence for demand-side shifts remains unsystematic and restricted to a handful of Western countries. The outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine has undoubtedly led to substantial shifts in popular attitudes. Based on original survey evidence from post-invasion Ukraine, matched with geolocated conflict data, this article seeks to elucidate the role of warfare in shaping welfare attitudes and prosocial preferences. We distinguish between two types of war impacts–proximate exposure to war violence and war-related financial deterioration–and show that these affect welfare-related attitudes differently. Whereas proximate exposure to conflict promotes national-level solidarity, war-related material victimisation is associated with higher support for social spending. Only weak support is found for an effect on fairness norms. While indicating that the historical link between warfare and demand for social policy has wider applicability, the results also underscore the variated impact of war and the resulting individual-level heterogeneity in attitudes. Finally, with the war ongoing, the Ukrainian case highlights the question of under which circumstances welfare demand may translate into policy change.