A Robust Framework for Bamboo Forest AGB Estimation by Integrating Geostatistical Prediction and Ensemble Learning

Abstract

Accurate above-ground biomass (AGB) quantification is confounded by signal saturation and data fusion challenges, particularly in structurally complex ecosystems like bamboo forests. To address these gaps, this study developed a two-stage framework to map the AGB of Dendrocalamus giganteus in a subtropical mountain environment. This study first employed Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction (EBKRP) to spatialize sparse GEDI and ICESat-2 LiDAR metrics using Sentinel-2 and topographic covariates. Subsequently, a stacked ensemble model, integrating four machine learning algorithms, predicted AGB from the full suite of continuous variables. The stacking model achieved high predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.84, RMSE = 11.07 Mg ha−1) and substantially mitigated the common bias of underestimating high AGB, improving the predicted observed regression slope from a base model average of 0.63 to 0.81. Furthermore, SHAP analysis provided mechanistic insights, identifying the canopy photon rate as the dominant predictor and quantifying the ecological thresholds governing AGB distribution. The mean AGB density was 71.8 ± 21.9 Mg ha−1, with its spatial pattern influenced by elevation and human settlements. This research provides a robust framework for synergizing multi-source remote sensing data to improve AGB estimation, offering a refined methodological pathway for large-scale carbon stock assessments.