Adaptive Management of Multi-Scenario Projects in Cybersecurity: Models and Algorithms for Decision-Making

Abstract

In recent years, cybersecurity management has increasingly required advanced methodologies capable of handling complex, evolving threat landscapes. Scenario network-based approaches have emerged as effective strategies for managing uncertainty and adaptability in cybersecurity projects. This article introduces a scenario network-based approach for managing cybersecurity projects, utilizing fuzzy linguistic models and a Takagi–Sugeno–Kanga fuzzy neural network. Drawing upon L. Zadeh’s theory of linguistic variables, the methodology integrates expert analysis, linguistic variables, and a continuous genetic algorithm to predict membership function parameters. Fuzzy production rules are employed for decision-making, while the Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm enhances interpretability. This approach enables multi-scenario planning and adaptability across multi-stage cybersecurity projects. Preliminary results from a research prototype of an intelligent expert system—designed to analyze project stages and adaptively construct project trajectories—suggest the proposed approach is effective. In computational experiments, the use of fuzzy procedures resulted in an over 25% reduction in errors compared to traditional methods, particularly in adjusting project scenarios from pessimistic to baseline projections. While promising, this approach requires further testing across diverse cybersecurity contexts. Future studies will aim to refine scenario adaptation and optimize system response in high-risk project environments.