Time series analysis of the demand for COVID-19 related chest imaging during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An explorative study

Abstract

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate possible patterns of demand for chest imaging during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and derive a decision aid for the allocation of resources in future pandemic challenges. Materials and methods Time data of requests for patients with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lung disease were analyzed between February 27th and May 27th 2020. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to evaluate differences in the number of requests between 3 time intervals (I1: 6am - 2pm, I2: 2pm - 10pm, I3: 10pm - 6am). A cosinor model was applied to investigate the demand per hour. Requests per day were compared to the number of regional COVID-19 cases. Results 551 COVID-19 related chest imagings (32.8% outpatients, 67.2% in-patients) of 243 patients were conducted (33.3% female, 66.7% male, mean age 60 ± 17 years). Most exams for outpatients were required during I2 (I1 vs. I2: odds ratio (OR) = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-0.86, p = 0.01; I2 vs. I3: OR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.48, p = 0.03) with an acrophase at 7:29 pm. Requests for in-patients decreased from I1 to I3 (I1 vs. I2: OR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.09-1.41, p = 0.01; I2 vs. I3: OR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.28, p = 0.01) with an acrophase at 12:51 pm. The number of requests per day for outpatients developed similarly to regional cases while demand for in-patients increased later and persisted longer. Conclusions The demand for COVID-19 related chest imaging displayed distinct distribution patterns depending on the sector of patient care and point of time during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. These patterns should be considered in the allocation of resources in future pandemic challenges with similar disease characteristics.