Modeling the hydrologic responses of the Pampanga River basin, Philippines: A quantitative approach for identifying droughts

Abstract

Drought in the Philippines has been monitored for agricultural and economic losses, but spatial and temporal characterization at the basin scale has not been quantified. The relationship between different drought types, and how these can be integrated into timely water-resource-management planning in the agriculture and water sector of the Pampanga River basin, were considered. Specifically, the objectives of this study are as follows: (1) to propose a standardized anomaly (SA) index for assessing different types of drought impacts at the basin scale; (2) to quantify vulnerability of the agriculture and water sectors using physically consistent hydrological parameters with temporal variation and spatial heterogeneity; (3) to develop a method for combining the drought index calculated from the inputs and outputs of WEB-DHM on the basis of sturdy algorithms for the physics of water and energy movement in the basin using monthly and seasonal differences of various drought types; and (4) to combine hydrological parameters with crop production to determine its effects on rice. The SA was calculated for the variables related to each drought type: rainfall (meteorological), streamflow and groundwater (hydrological), and soil moisture (agricultural) during 1983, 1987, 1990-1992, and 1998 droughts. El Niño is one of the major driving forces leading to drought in the country. The drought intensified on the second year of the average two-year El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) composites with a 1 to 7 month time lag between parameters and hot spots in the upland and central plains of the basin. Recommended adaptation strategies include crop scheduling, crop/livelihood substitutes, and alternative water sources. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.