Reducing carbon emissions from avoided deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: an approach based on the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario

Abstract

Objective: Historically, Brazil's largest source of GHG comes from changes in land use, strongly correlated with deforestation in the Amazon, which can compromise the Reduced Emissions (RE) established in the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution presented in the so-called Agreement from Paris. This study aimed to analyze the Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU scenario), projecting the reduced CO2 emissions from avoided deforestation originating from Land Use Changes in the Brazilian Amazon. Methodology: Estimates of RE values referring to the historical baseline of deforestation from 2006 to 2020. In addition, the projection of the BAU scenario is based on the linear regression model of RE data from 2021 to 2030. Relevance: Studies of deforestation scenarios are fundamental. Especially, this one consists of answering how emissions from deforestation would be configured if nothing changed in the future concerning the usual scenario or BAU scenario. Results: In a pessimistic scenario with high deforestation rates, the BAU Scenario estimates would be: – 121.85 and – 271.31 MtCO2 in 2025 and 2030, respectively. Furthermore, the RE targets for the years: 2020 (154.7 MtCO2), 2025 (719 MtCO2), and 2030 (887 MtCO2) would be overestimated, contradicting the emission mitigation goals. Conclusion: The main conclusion of the study is that in the context of the return of the high rates of deforestation in the Amazon, Brazil still has a great challenge to reach the desired levels of GHG emissions.