Can Arctic Sea Ice Melting Lead to More Summertime Heat Extremes?

Abstract

We quantify the impact of late 21st century Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere (NH) summertime heat extremes using model simulations that are forced by the future Arctic sea ice loss. First, we find an overall increase of heat extreme frequency in the NH continents in our model simulations, but only in the presence of ocean-atmosphere coupling. The increased frequency of heat extremes is entirely due to mean temperature increase. However, in comparison to the corresponding future warming scenario, in general, increases in heat extremes in NH continents due to the future Arctic sea ice loss are relatively small. The results suggest a non-negligible but limited role of the future Arctic sea ice loss on contributing to the NH summertime heat extremes.