A Scientific Vision and Roadmap for Earthquake Rupture Forecast Developments, A USGS Perspective

Abstract

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF) models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotem-poral clustering nationwide, which can be particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the impor-tance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, unquantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidis-ciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the U.S. Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this article is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early-career scientists and engineers. The article is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see Manuscript Organization section), with the Introduction and the Discussion section providing a stand-alone overview and summary, respectively.