Underlying Causes of NIMBY Conflicts in Power Grid Construction Projects: An ISM–BN Model Perspective

Abstract

“Not In My Back Yard” (NIMBY) conflicts have emerged as a significant challenge in the siting and construction of power grid projects. Traditional risk management methods are often inadequate for addressing the complex interactions between the multiple factors involved in such projects. To explain the relationship between different influencing factors, this paper constructs the hierarchy between the influencing factors using the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM) and carries out a causal analysis of NIMBY conflicts in power grid construction projects using the Bayesian network model. The results of the ISM hierarchical map show that high risk perception and construction practices lacking refinement are the most direct causes of NIMBY incidents. The Bayesian network model indicates that poor construction practices, negative public opinion, high risk perception, inadequate risk assessment and emergency response mechanisms, and negative externalities are the most sensitive factors within the causal system of NIMBY incidents and require priority attention. An increase in risk perception is also found to significantly escalate the severity of NIMBY conflicts. The insights gleaned in this study may provide valuable guidance for managing NIMBY conflicts in power grid construction projects.