Simulation of population growth and distribution based on centrality of road network

Abstract

This study presents a method to model population growth of spatial units by incorporating measures of road network centrality instead of conventional statistical models of population growth. The proposed model enables the estimation of population growth based on the changes in the urban form represent by the changes in the road network and their centralities. The model has been calibrated and validated for the city of Colombo, Sri Lanka. The proposed model for simulating population growth rate by utilizing Closeness Centrality values and the rate of natural population growth as endogenous variables recorded an accepted level of predictability (R2= 0.87 and MdAPE < 10%). The method demonstrated in this research is an effective tool for understanding and directing the efficient allocation of intelligent road network infrastructure, urban planning and population modeling.