Investing in agroecology for resilience and sustainability: Evidence from smallholders in Rwanda

Abstract

CONTEXT: Smallholder farmers produce most of Rwanda's agricultural output but remain highly exposed to food insecurity, climate shocks, soil degradation, and rising dependence on external inputs. Agroecology is increasingly promoted as a pathway to improve resilience and sustainability, yet investment planning remains constrained by a persistent gap: agroecological evidence is rarely translated into operational and investable domains that can be programmed, budgeted, and monitored. OBJECTIVE: This study (i) measures agroecological transition levels among Rwandan smallholders, (ii) assesses how these levels are associated with multidimensional sustainability outcomes, and (iii) translates observed transition bottlenecks into a functionally defined and empirically grounded set of evidence-based investment domains for investment planning and scaling. METHODS: The Tool for Agroecology Performance Evaluation (TAPE) was applied to 469 smallholder farms across Rwanda's five agroecological zones. Transition was assessed through CAET scores based on the 10 Elements of Agroecology, and performance indicators covered productivity and income dynamics, food security and nutrition, social inclusion, and ecosystem health. A Principal Component Analysis with k-means clustering generated a typology of transition profiles, and Canonical Correlation Analysis was used to examine multivariate associations between agroecological elements and sustainability outcomes. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Farms with higher agroecological transition levels consistently achieve stronger outcomes across productivity, resilience, food security, social equity, soil health, and biodiversity indicators. Multivariate results confirm that agroecological transition is associated with bundled and mutually reinforcing improvements across sustainability dimensions, with diversification, recycling, and social values emerging as key levers linked to multiple outcome domains, including productivity, food security, soil health, and income stability. Based on transition bottlenecks identified through cluster typologies and multivariate analysis, the study identifies seven operational investment domains to accelerate transition in Rwanda: ecological intensification; organic fertilizers and bioinputs; farmer-managed seed systems; livestock integration; knowledge co-creation; youth and gender inclusion; and participatory governance. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides a comprehensive and empirically grounded farm-level assessment of agroecology in Rwanda. Its main contribution is to translate agroecological transition diagnostics into a functional investment framework, addressing a key gap between evidence and investment planning. By explicitly linking farm-level transition diagnostics to actionable financing and investment programming, it offers an operational framework that governments and partners can use to design, sequence, and monitor agroecology-focused programmes and investments.