A quantitative analysis of supply response in the Namibian mutton industry

Abstract

Agricultural activities in Namibia contribute 5.5% of Namibia's GDP, while 70% of the population relies on agriculture for employment and day-to-day living. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between the various price and non-price factors contributing to the supply dynamics within the mutton industry in Namibia. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to co-integration was used to determine the long-run and short-run supply response elasticities between economic and climatology factors on time-series data. Supply shifters showed significant short-run and long-run elasticities with regard to the mutton produced. Results also revealed that the system takes nearly two months to recover to the long-run supply equilibrium, should any disturbances occur within the supply system.