DAMPAK PERTUMBUHAN NILAI TUKAR RIIL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA (SUATU APLIKASI MODEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE, VAR)

Abstract

This study aimed to test the impact of the growth of real exchange rate towards the growth of Indonesian trade balance by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. By using quarterly data from 1983.1 to 2005.4 periods, the result obtained is in accordance with other countries which response positively the depreciation of exchange rate in long term or follow the phenomenon of J-curve. However, the rate of growth is still weak in explaining the growth of trade balance because the model is only significant estimates at á and based on the decomposition of variation of growth surprises of real exchange rate is only 2.7% in average which explained the variation of trade balance growth