Exposure of commercially exploited shellfish to changing pH levels: how to scale-up experimental evidence to regional impacts

Abstract

Ocean acidification has become one of the most intensively studied climate change topics and it is expected to have both direct and indirect impacts on species, ecosystems, and economies. Experiments have been performed on different taxa, life stages, and at different pH levels. Despite this wealth of information, several key challenges remain, including (1) uncertainty about how to incorporate current pH ranges and variability experienced by organisms into experiments, and (2) how to bring this information together to support analysis and assessments at the broader ecosystem level. Sophisticated modelling tools are needed to 'scale-up' from experimental results to regional-scale insights. This paper highlights the challenges of combining information to determine how commercially exploited species may be affected under future pH levels, and how modelling and experimental results might be better aligned, using northwest Europe and the waters around the British Isles as an example. We argue that in most cases the current evidence does not offer sufficient information into impacts at projected pH levels, and that future experiments should be designed to consider the pH levels actually experienced by organisms, as well as variability in pH. These types of study are key in safeguarding commercially exploited shellfish stocks.