Disaster, Distributive Politics, and the Persistence of Partisan Divides in Climate Policy

Abstract

Can district interests mitigate partisan differences over climate policy? While debates over climate policy are highly partisan, local economic and national defense interests may create cross-cutting pressures that reduce polarization. Here, we analyze whether district characteristics mitigate partisan differences on climate change, particularly public opinion and exposure of military installations to weather-related damage. Using two studies—one using a large language model to measure the positions lawmakers take in congressional email newsletters and another employing a survey experiment testing framing effects—we assess whether national defense and economic concerns mitigate partisan divisions. Our findings suggest that Republicans representing districts where severe weather events threaten local military infrastructure express more support for “pro-climate” policy than other Republicans, and that Democrats representing environmentally conservative districts express less support. However, our experiment found no evidence that the issue frame influences voters’ opinions.