Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

Abstract

Thomas et al.1 model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species–area relationship to estimate that 15–37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species’ dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.