War in Europe, but Still Low Tension in the High North? An Analysis of Norwegian Mitigation Strategies

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created the most precarious security situation in Europe, including the High North, since the Second World War. This article studies how Norway manages High North security dilemmas in the context of this ongoing war. Based on security dilemma theory, we direct our attention to a set of mitigation strategies and discuss the effectiveness of these. We build our arguments on Robert Jervis’ article “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma” in World Politics (1978), and his understanding that a security dilemma occurs when an increase in one state’s security leads to other states fearing for their own security, thus creating tension or conflict escalation. To limit such dilemmas, Norway has pursued a policy mix of both deterrence and reassurance measures. Our contribution to the research debate is the term mitigation-strategies, derived from security dilemma theory. First, we discuss people-to-people cooperation and analyse how this is a trust-building measure. Secondly, we explore how Norway approaches confidence and security building measures in the High North. Finally, we discuss the implications of letting the Arctic Council become an arena for security- and defence political coordination. Building upon insights from security dilemma theory, we demonstrate how Norway contributes to maintaining lower levels of tension in the High North.