Estimation of the epidemiological characteristics of scabies

Abstract

Scabies is a contagious skin disease caused by Sarcoptes scabiei mite infestation, affecting 400 million people worldwide. Despite this global burden and rising European incidence, fundamental epidemiological characteristics remain unknown. We analyzed symptom onset data from four scabies outbreaks to estimate serial interval. We used surveillance data from the Netherlands (2011–2023) to estimate growth rate and basic and time-varying reproduction numbers. We developed the R package {mitey} which implements the methods used to estimate the serial interval and time-varying reproduction number. Serial interval estimates ranged from 98–167 days with a pooled estimate of 123 days (95% CI: 91, 153). We estimated an annual growth rate of 0.25 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.30) cases per 1000 people and basic reproduction number of 1.09 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.11). Consultations increased over time with seasonal patterns. Transmission peaked in July. Here we show that prevention of 8% of secondary infections through public awareness and targeted measures could control epidemic growth. Our findings underscore the need for better transmission data to inform containment efforts.