STUDY ON THE VARIATION OF RAINFALL CHRACTERISTIC AND FLOOD AND DROUGHT RISKS ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL WARMING

Abstract

In order to implement policy measures on practical water management related to flood and drought to combat the influences of rainfall characteristic variation arising from global warming, quantitative indicators of future regional-based flood and drought risks are required. In this study, changes of regional-based flood and drought risks arising from global warming are analyzed based on the precipitation observation records obtained in Japan over the past 100 years, the effectiveness of the risk assessment is evaluated using the results of the regional climate change prediction over the next 50 years from the RCM20 regional climate change models developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), and then changes of regional-based flood and drought risks are forecasted. This study was carried out under the Global Warming Research Initiative of the Council for Science and Technology Policy, the Cabinet Office of Japan.