Testable implications of linear structural equation models

Abstract

In causal inference, all methods of model learning rely on testable implications, namely, properties of the joint distribution that are dictated by the model structure. These constraints, if not satisfied in the data, allow us to reject or modify the model. Most common methods of testing a linear structural equation model (SEM) rely on the likelihood ratio or chi-square test which simultaneously tests all of the restrictions implied by the model. Local constraints, on the other hand, offer increased power (Bollen and Pearl 2013; McDonald 2002) and, in the case of failure, provide the modeler with insight for revising the model specification. One strategy of uncovering local constraints in linear SEMs is to search for overidentified path coefficients. While these overi- dentifying constraints are well known, no method has been given for systematically discovering them. In this paper, we extend the half-trek criterion of (Foygel, Draisma, and Drton 2012) to identify a larger set of structural coefficients and use it to systematically discover overidentifying constraints. Still open is the question of whether our algorithm is complete.