Analysis Model of Risk Factors of Urban Bus Operation Based on FTA-CLR

Abstract

In order to comprehensively analyze the risk factors and accurately find the high risk factors related to accidents, an analysis model of risk factors of urban bus operation is proposed, in which the advantages of the structural analysis of the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the correlation analysis of the Cumulative Logistic Regression (CLR) are combined. Firstly, based on the accident data in Northeast China, FTA is used to compile the urban bus operation fault tree. In the fault tree, 16 bus operation risk factors are classified, while the risk factors are sorted and compared from three aspects: structural importance, probability importance, and critical importance. And then, the 11 higher risk factors are selected according to the discriminant principle. Secondly, bus operation accidents are divided into fatal accidents, injury accidents, and major economic loss accidents. The CLR model is used to fit the much higher risk factors that lead to urban bus operation accidents from above 11 higher risk factors. Finally, the scientific rationality and applicability of the model are verified, through the goodness of fit test and the comparison test with the actual probability of occurrence.