Research on Fresh Agricultural Product Based on the Retailer's Overconfidence under Options and Spot Markets

Abstract

In this article, we analyze the application of options contract in the special commodity supply chain such as fresh agricultural products. This problem is discussed from the point of the retailer. When spot market and future market are both available, we discuss how the retailer chooses the optimal production. Furthermore, overconfidence is introduced to the supply chain of the fresh agricultural products, which has not happened before. Then，based on the overconfidence of the retailer, we explore how overconfidence affects the supply chain system under different circumstances. At last, we get the conclusion that different overconfidence level has different affection on retailer's optimal ordering quantity and profit.