THE PRINCIPLE OF SPACE-FOR-TIME SUBSTITUTION IN PREDICTING BETULA SPP. BIOMASS CHANGE RELATED TO CLIMATE SHIFTS

Abstract

Human society faces problems of a global scale today, as a result of which the priorities of environmental research are shifting to the macro level, and ecology has entered the era of "big data". The authors have created a database of 1,717 model trees of Betula spp. with measured indicators of diameter at breast height (DBH), tree height, age, and aboveground biomass growing in the territory of Eurasia. Regression models for aboveground biomass components are calculated, including the dendrological indices mentioned, and two climate indicators as independent variables. Based on the theory of space-for-time substitution, the obtained patterns of changes in aboveground biomass in the territorial climatic gradients of Eurasia are used to predict changes in biomass due to climate shifts. In accordance with the law of the limiting factor by Liebig, it is established that in sufficiently moisture-rich climatic zones, an increase in temperature by 1°C with a constant amount of precipitation causes an increase in biomass, and in water-deficient zones-its decrease. In warm climatic zones, a decrease in precipitation by 100 mm at a constant average January temperature causes a decrease in biomass, and in cold climatic zones-its increase.