Wind energy assessment for NEOM city, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This paper provides an analytical assessment of the feasibility of wind energy for Saudi Arabia's envisioned NEOM city, which plans to use only renewable energy. A probability density function was fit to winds simulated for the NEOM region during 2014-2018. Using this distribution, the optimal wind turbine was selected as the one with the largest capacity factor and smallest levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Financial, environmental, and risk analysis of a wind farm consisting of 100 of these units was also performed. A Weibull distribution determined by changing the shape and scale parameters to minimize the mean squared error offered the best fit to the measured wind speeds at this location. The estimated power density showed that the NEOM site warrants a Class 3 classification, which means wind energy systems would be suitable for commercial operation. A 3.2-MW wind turbine, which is optimal for this location, has a capacity factor varying from 31.9% to 41.4% and LCOE that ranges from 6.99¢ to 8.32¢ per kWh. The 320-MW wind farm has a positive net present value, a simple payback period of 13.8 years, and a LCOE of 6.6¢ per kWh. By installing this farm, potential annual savings of CO2 are around 106 metric tons.