Critical misalignments in climate pledges reveal imbalanced sustainable development pathways

Abstract

We explore the integration of climate action and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the first two submissions of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) using an AI-based, human-validated framework. Our goal is to provide ex-ante evidence relevant to assessing policy adequacy. We find disparities in topics of interest with high-income countries emphasizing systemic challenges (health, SDG3) and low-income nations prioritizing the water-energy-food nexus (SDGs 6-7-12) and natural resource management (SDG15). We discuss what these diverging development trajectories imply for the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development in terms of global inequality, sustainable finance flows and multilateral governance.