Some Considerations for Using Numerical Methods to Simulate Possible Debris Flows: The Case of the 2013 and 2020 Wayao Debris Flows (Sichuan, China)

Abstract

Using a numerical simulation method based on physical equations to obtain the debris flow risk range is important for local-scale debris flow risk assessment. While many debris flow models have been used to reproduce processes after debris flow occurrence, their predictability in potentially catastrophic debris flow scenarios has mostly not been evaluated in detail. Two single-phase flow models and two two-phase models were used to reproduce the Wayao debris flow event in 2013. Then the Wayao debris flow event in 2020 was predicted by the four models with the same parameters in 2013. The depth distributions of the debris source and deposition fan were mapped by visual interpretation, electric resistivity surveys, field measurements, and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys. The digital elevation model (DEM), rainfall data, and other simulation parameters were collected. These models can reproduce the geometry and thickness distribution of the debris flow fan in 2013. However, the predictions of the runout range and the deposition depth are quite different from the actuality in 2020. The performance and usability of these models are compared and discussed. This could provide a reference for selecting physical models to assess debris-flow risk.