Projected Changes of Surface Winds Over the Antarctic Continental Margin

Abstract

Surface winds around the Antarctic continent control coupled ocean-ice processes that influence the climate system, including bottom water production, heat transport onto the continental shelf and sea ice coverage. However, few studies have examined projected changes in these winds, even though it would aid in the interpretation and understanding of the ocean's response to climate change. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and reanalysis data, we show a significant reduction in the near-Antarctic surface winds throughout the historical period that continues until the end of the twenty-first century, amounting to 23% and 7% for the easterly and southerly wind components respectively under the high emission scenario. The most intense weakening happens during the summer season. We find that the weakening is coherent with the trend toward a positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction of the pole-to-coast meridional pressure gradient, which we term Antarctic Annular Index.