Revenue and expenditure balance of renewable energy electricity price subsidies based on grey model

Abstract

The huge accumulative gap of electricity price subsidy has caused great pressure on the renewable energy industry and fiscal expenditure. Therefore, there is great practical significance to analyze the revenue and expenditure balance of China’s renewable energy price subsidy for its sustainability. Under the background of price subsidy withdrawal, the grey model GM (1,1) was used to predict the electricity consumption of the secondary and tertiary industries and the urban and rural residents. This study calculated the theoretical subsidy of renewable energy electricity price and its additional tariff income, and analyzed the balance of electricity price subsidy. The results show that: (1) The accumulative gap of electricity price subsidy will be closed in 2025. In this year, the renewable energy price subsidy will reach a balance of income and expenditure, and there will be a subsidy surplus of 25.347 billion yuan, after which the surplus of the subsidy will increase continuously. (2) The additional tariff standard of electricity price can be lowered gradually from 2026. It will be reduced by 0.002 yuan per kilowatt-hour annually from 2026 to 2030, and 0.001 yuan per kilowatt-hour annually from 2031 to 2038, until it will be abolished in 2039. (3) The leakage of China’s renewable energy electricity price additional tariff income is serious, the levying rate is low, and we should increase the levying rate until the full amount of collection to promote an earlier attainment of electricity price subsidy income and expenditure balance. Finally, suggestions were put forward to promote the high quality development of renewable energy industry from the aspects of adjusting additional tariff standard for electricity price, increasing the levying rate of additional tariff income, raising subsidy funds, and so on.