Optimizing afforestation pathways through economic cost mitigates China’s financial challenge of carbon neutrality

Abstract

Carbon removal and emission reductions simultaneously play a decisive role in carbon neutrality. Yet, different from the structural upgrades in emission reduction, carbon removal through afforestation often heavily relies on specific geographical space. Although carbon neutrality pathways that overlook spatial details play a significant role, the challenge of spatiotemporal equilibrium linked with carbon neutrality exacerbates the economic risks of joint abatement by both parties. Here, we assessed cost-optimal pathways for afforestation in China up to 2060 by incorporating marginal abatement cost curves derived from spatial decomposition of afforestation into a dynamic multi-model analysis of joint abatement. Our findings reveal that afforestation needs to play an increasingly important role in climate mitigation from 2020 to 2060, while the share of emissions reduction needs to gradually decrease. Afforestation policies and actions under carbon neutrality should be coordinated with emissions reduction efforts, aiming to achieve cost-optimal joint abatement, which can be an important source of climate mitigation efforts and address the financial challenges of carbon neutrality. Moreover, the intertemporal cost-optimal maps to carbon neutrality through afforestation observed significant spatiotemporal variability of cost-optimal areas. Hence, focusing afforestation efforts on cost-optimal areas during specific periods can be another important way of addressing the financial challenges.