ENSO Teleconnections More Uncertain in Regions of Lower Socioeconomic Development

Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts climate variability globally and can influence extreme climate and weather events. We quantify the uncertainty in ENSO's atmospheric teleconnections with extremes using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis, showing that uncertainty estimates vary regionally over the historical period. Uncertainty is found to be greater in regions of lower socioeconomic development. This can be linked to the limited availability of observational data in these regions as well as difficulties constraining tropical climate dynamics in global gridded atmospheric data sets. Poorer locations face greater challenges due to lack of understanding of past variability limiting confidence in regional projections.