Green but cautious. How preferences on European integration shape public opinion on the European Green Deal

Abstract

The ‘European Green Deal’ was a central issue in the run-up to the 2024 European Parliament elections. Little is known though about voters’ preferences on policy bundles that combine climate mitigation measures with fiscal integration. We argue that EU-level climate policies make voters engage in multidimensional cost–benefit calculations. Voters not only weigh-up the costs of climate policies against their anticipated benefits. They also take the additional costs of deepened European integration into account, comparing them to the benefits of coordinated, European policymaking. We test this argument with a conjoint experiment in Germany, France, and Poland asking voters to evaluate a shared green investment package–a cornerstone of the Green Deal. We find that voters are not opposed to multidimensional climate policies per se. Across Europe, investments in disadvantaged regions, and the (re-)training of workers increase the popularity of green policies. Policies that contain EU-level redistribution are regarded skeptically though. Additional analyses suggest that emphasising the co-benefits of fiscal integration–e.g., its ability to reduce economic dependencies and strengthen international competitiveness–might increase support. These findings demonstrate that the EU is fighting an uphill battle with its Green Deal agenda and have important implications for the design and communication of European green policies.