Effects of climate factors and human activities on the ecosystem water use efficiency throughout Northern China

Abstract

Global climate changes have increased the imbalance of water resources, especially in northern China, which comprises typical arid and semiarid regions. Large-scale afforestation has been implemented over the past three decades in northern China. The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) connects the carbon cycle and water cycle of the terrestrial ecosystems and is defined as the ratio of the gross primary productivity (GPP) to the evapotranspiration. However, there are still an insufficient number of studies on the impact of the afforestation on the WUE. In this study, we applied the random forest (RF) model to explore the impacts of climate and nonclimate factors on the WUE in northern China. The results showed that in areas with high precipitation, the forests had the highest WUE, while in the arid areas, the croplands had the highest WUE. Of the total area, 44.34% showed a significant increase, and 5.89% showed a significant decrease in the WUE from 1982-2015 in northern China. The main driving factors for the changes in the WUE were climate factors, including the precipitation, temperature and solar radiation, which contributed to approximately 84% of the WUE trends, while human activities, such as afforestation, contributed to approximately 16% of the WUE trends. Overall, although the climate had a larger impact on the WUE dynamics than the human activities, our results suggested that the impacts of the afforestation programs on forest carbon and water cycles should be considered in the context of climate change.