Monte Carlo simulation of uncertain parameters to evaluate the evacuation process in an underground mine fire emergency

Abstract

In the process of designing a fire safety system for underground mines, computer fire models can be used to analyse and estimate the consequences of fire scenarios for the evacuation process and the safety of mineworkers. The models need to be fed with data, some of which is stochastic in nature. Recent literature addresses the need for a computationally effective methodology for introducing uncertainties in the input parameters of fire and evacuation models to improve safety in underground mines. This research paper presents the results obtained from a methodology that implements Monte Carlo simulation, which follows the normal distribution of the fire load and the pre-movement time uncertainty to generate multiple scenarios that are simulated in a 3D model to show the propagation of combustion products through the mine ventilation network. These results are then used to estimate the fractional effective dose (FED) of fire combustion products in workers, and the available safe egress time (ASET) and required safe egress time (RSET), which can highlight the safety issues in the evacuation process. To demonstrate the model, a case study of the SASA- R.N. Macedonia lead-zinc mine was used in which 50 variations of scenarios were simulated. The results from the simulations are analysed and potentially harmful fire scenarios highlighted. In addition to being able to identify potentially dangerous fire scenarios, the model can also help in the process of conducting fire risk assessment and in improving the evacuation system in the case of an underground mine fire.