The Stress Index as a Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Isolated Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

Abstract

Background: The Stress Index (SI), calculated as the ratio of blood glucose to serum potassium levels, is a promising prognostic marker in various acute care settings. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of the SI for predicting mortality in patients with isolated moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods: This retrospective cohort study included adult trauma patients (aged ≥ 20 years) with isolated moderate to severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3 for only head region) treated from 2009–2022. The SI was computed from the initial glucose and potassium levels upon arrival at the emergency department. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between the SI and mortality after adjusting for relevant covariates. The most effective threshold value of the SI for predicting mortality was identified using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: Among the 4357 patients with isolated moderate and severe TBI, 463 (10.6%) died. Deceased patients had a significantly higher SI (61.7 vs. 44.1, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, higher SI independently predicted greater mortality risk (odds ratio (OR) 6.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.66–26.99, p = 0.007). The optimal SI cutoff for predicting mortality was 48.50 (sensitivity 62.0%, specificity 71.4%, area under the curve 0.724). Patients with SI ≥ 48.5 had nearly two-fold higher adjusted mortality odds compared to those below the threshold (adjusted OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.51–2.50, p < 0.001). Conclusions: SI is a useful predictor of mortality in patients with isolated moderate-to-severe TBI. Incorporating SI with standard clinical assessments could enhance risk stratification and management approaches for this patient population.