Numerical simulation of the period 1971-2100 over the mediterranean area with a regional model, Scenario SRES-A1B

Abstract

In this work, we discuss the results of numerical simulations performed with the regional model COSMO-CLM over the Mediterranean area at a spatial resolution of 14 km, employing an optimized model configuration. An assessment of model capabilities to reproduce the main features of the recent and past climate has been performed, using two different simulations: The first simulation is driven by the ERA40 Reanalysis and the second, by the CMCC-MED global model. Validation is performed through a comparison with the E-OBS dataset. Climate projections, according to the SRES A1B emission scenario, have been further analyzed in terms of change of 2-m temperature and precipitation, and have shown a significant warming expected at the end of the 21st Century, along with a general reduction in precipitation, particularly evident in spring and summer.