Construction and validation of nomograms for predicting the prognosis of grade 3 endometrial endometrioid adenocarcinoma cancers: a SEER-based study

Abstract

Most cases of endometrial adenocarcinoma (EAC) are diagnosed early and have a good prognosis; however, grade 3 (G3) EACs have poor outcomes. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 11,519 patients with G3 EACs registered between 2004 and 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database and constructed a nomogram to guide clinicians in decision-making and accurate prediction of the prognosis. The caret package was used to divide samples into a training set and a validation set. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed, and a nomogram was constructed. A calibration curve was plotted, and a decision curve analysis was performed to verify the accuracy and clinical utility in both cohorts. The Cox regression analysis revealed that age, race, tumor size, number of lymph nodes resected, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, tumor/node stage, and adjuvant therapy were the prognostic factors for G3 EAC, and these were included in the nomogram. The area under the curve values of the training cohort for 1-, 3-, and 5-year were 0.832, 0.798, and 0.784, respectively for the overall survival (OS) group, and 0.858, 0.812, and 0.799, respectively for the cancer specific survival (CSS) group. A nomogram was constructed to predict the survival rate of patients with G3 EACs more accurately. The predictive nomogram will help clinicians manage patients with G3 EACs more effectively in terms of clinical prognosis.