SCENARIO PLANNING TO INCREASE THE VALUE OF LOCAL AGRIBUSINESS COMMODITIES IN INDRAGIRI HILIR DISTRICT OF RIAU

Abstract

Indragiri Hilir District as the largest producer of coconut commodity on National and International scale has not been able to provide prosperity for the society whose 70% of economy depends on the sector. This is due to high complexity of existing problems. Therefore, this research used scenario planning concept with SRI method because the approach is able to accommodate the complexity and high uncertainty and is suitable for future decision-making. Data was collected through interview, observation, and secondary data to determine six stages of SRI, namely strategic decision, key decision factors and environmental forces by using macro analysis (SEPT) and micro (Five Forces Porter), the outputs later become inputs for making scenario logic, then described in details on strategy implications. This paper offers 4 alternative scenarios to increase the value of future coconut commodity Inhil Scintillating and Inhil Industry Growth as scenario optimization. While Inhil Challenging as a moderate scenario, Inhil Dreaming becomes the worst scenario for the sustainability