Predict Changes in Crude Oil Price and New Energy Automobile Industry Impacted by the Russian-Ukraine War

Abstract

The Russian-Ukraine War is a hot topic nowadays as it causes a sharp rise in the world crude oil price, due to fears of supply shortages mount, which affects the cost of production for many industries. Meanwhile, the fear of running out of crude oil pushes the world to find new energy as a substitute. The car industry is an outstanding example that is experiencing transit from oil cars to new energy cars. Hence, there exist close relationships between the crude oil price and the new energy car industry. The article will discuss the short-run and long-run impact of the Russian-Ukraine War on crude oil prices and the Chinese new energy car industry using the VAR and ARMA-GARCH model. The models show that the effect of rising crude oil prices on the Chinese new energy automobile industry depends on whether the positive effect of sales growth is greater than the negative effect of the increase in cost in the short run, plus there’s no significant impact for the long term.