Characterizing Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Child Sexual Abuse in Mexico City Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This study conducts a spatio-temporal analysis to identify trends and clusters of child sexual abuse in Mexico City before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Sexual abuses of children were analyzed considering various crime theories. Trends and patterns were identified using time series decomposition and spatial autocorrelation techniques. Time series considered three relevant periods. Anselin’s Local Moran’s I identified the spatial distribution of significant clusters. The child sexual abuse rate presented similar values following school closures. The resumption of classes entailed a decrease of −1.5% (children under 15) and an increase of 29% (children over 15). Particular locations in Mexico City experienced significant clusters among those over 15. There were eight noteworthy clusters displaying recidivism patterns with lower poverty rates and a high level of education. Efforts to combat child sexual abuse should prioritize specific areas in Mexico City where female children over 15 are at high risk of becoming victims of sexual abuse.