Evaluation of the Impact of Climatic Changes on the Development of Agriculture of European North Russia

Abstract

Observations indicate that global warming may be currently taking place, which has accelerated markedly since the 1970s. Research on the implications of climate change has shown that the greatest effect is to be expected in the following sectors of the regional economy: agriculture, transport infrastructure, utilization of coastal resources, energy, forestry, tourism, fish industry and water. Studies for Russia, which is overall a relatively cold country, showed that climate change has a direct effect on production in agriculture and it may be either positive or negative in different regions of the country. To assess the effect of climate change on agriculture in European Russia we distinguished climatic zones with similar temperature and precipitation values. Several models of the dynamics of agricultural production and yield depending on climatic characteristics, farming practices and socio-economic characteristics were built. As a result, the positive impact of climate change on crop yields in Russia has found only partial confirmation. A greater effect can be manifested by increasing the level of management and transition to modern technologies, and gradual shift to the north of grown crops. This will accordingly require increased investment in agricultural science to implement new projects in line with the changing external environment.