Study on the Causes of Wellbore Leakage in Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage—Enhanced Oil Recovery

Abstract

This study investigates wellbore leakage accidents associated with Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Enhanced Oil Recovery (CCUS-EOR) to identify causal factors, clarify their degrees of influence, hierarchical structures, and substantive roles, while revealing the causal mechanisms behind these incidents to promote the safe development of CCUS-EOR. A distinctive aspect of this research is its integrated framework, which effectively combines the theory of integrated safety management with advanced methodologies such as the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), Interpretive Structural Models (ISM), and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication (MICMAC) to systematically analyze the interdependencies among risk factors. This comprehensive approach provides a nuanced understanding of the interactions among the 20 identified influencing factors across four domains, organized into a multilayered, three-stage structure. Furthermore, the study uncovers two critical causal pathways for wellbore leakage, namely F17 (lack of supervision and feedback) → F20 (inadequate safety investment) → F16 (lack of education and training) → F3 (weak safety awareness) → F9 (improper material selection) and F13 (high geological activity) → F11 (poor reservoir properties) → F6 (corrosion and aging failure), offering unique insights into risk dynamics that remain underexplored in the existing literature. This study could be enhanced in future research by taking into account a broader spectrum of causal factors, incorporating scenario simulations to facilitate a more comprehensive analysis, and involving a greater number of experts from diverse fields to enrich the insights derived.