Coupled atmosphere-biosphere models as a tool for conservation planning and policy

Abstract

Over the last 20 years a new generation of climate models have been developed that link atmosphere models to dynamic vegetation models (coupled atmosphere-biosphere models). These models are able to capture key feedbacks between the changing climate and changing ecosystems, providing more realistic forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, the biosphere model can be regionally calibrated to provide more geographically specific predictions about future trajectories of environmental change over the next century. We identify four potential uses of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models for conservation: (i) more accurate and regionally specific forecasts of climate change; (ii) better understanding of carbon cycling, a key ecosystem service; (iii) better placement and design of protected areas, and; (iv) improved modeling of different land-use scenarios. Realizing these objectives will require better integration and communication between modeling and conservation communities and the development of specific visualization and planning tools that allows these complex models to be fully integrated into conservation planning. © 2011 ABECO.